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Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger vessel types of Capesizes, shipbrokers have suggested that it will be the demand aspect of the equation, which will determine whether the market will return to healthier levels during 2013. According to a report from shipbroker firm Intermodal, the rally in charter rates that has been recorded over the past three months has been in high contrast to the overall performance of Capes throughout 2012.
"It's been a completely uninspiring year with the Cape index hovering between 1,000 and 1,500 points for the first 9 months, only managing to break through this range in early October, as a strong drive in iron ore fixtures, mainly supported by the vast stockpiling undertaken by the Chinese, helped push the Index to just over 2,500 points. It is important to point out that we had a peak during November in China’s iron ore imports, which reached their highest level for 2012 and similar only to the volumes seen the same period last year, where rates for capes followed almost the same pattern.
The iron ore market has now turned on its head, as imported ore prices exceed that of the average Chinese produced supplies for the first time since June this year. There is now little reasoning for haste stock piling to take place, especially since prices have reached over $ 124 per dry metric ton, while at the same time arbitrage between local sourced supplies and those shipped from Brazil and Australia is limited. On the plus side much of this firming in prices has been generated by optimism amongst traders that the new improved economic figures coming out of China could propel demand for iron ore much higher over the next couple of months. This has possibly created a speculative sentiment and possibly a situation where we could see a spike in demand within early 2013" wrote Eva Tzima.
She argued that "opportunities have already been unveiled during this final quarter, as the nine-month period of sub-par earnings have started to be reflected in asset values. Despite the overall absence of new orders, newbuilding prices seem to have stopped their drop and are not looking likely to have room to fall much further. On the other side of the equation, we have the fairly strong demo prices on offer keeping the scrap value of a typical capesize bulker (~22,000ldt) well above $ 8.0m. This has created a squeeze in the secondhand market, which, in combination to the drop in prices, means that considering both the newbuilding cost and current scrap value, assets are fairly favorably priced. The most notable example is the case of 15year old vessels which have lately been valued at levels of around $ 11.0m, only 38% higher than their residual scrap value. This has also been heavily reflected in the higher SnP activity noted for 15-20year olds, which accounted for 35% of all cape sales this year".
Concluding, Tzima noted that "we may well have expectations for a slower fleet growth rate of just above 6% next year, however even this may prove to be overwhelming if iron ore and coal seaborne trade keep trending at the same sluggish pace of the first three quarters of 2012. As has been shown in the past 3 months, it all comes down to the support the Chinese government will give to its stimulus plan and by how much this will feed through into the market via growth linked commodities demand and increased infrastructure development" she said.
In terms of newbuilding activity, which is always a determining factor in terms of supply, Intermodal's latest report noted that "there is still some small activity in the newbuilding sector despite the fact that we are approaching the end of the year. It is evident that the wet rather than the dry sector has fed higher activity for the shipbuilding industry this year. With the recent example of Scorpio’s large order reported last week, it is fair to assume that the support from the wet sector has been due to demand for new ECO designs as well as shuttle tankers that have gathered quite a few supporters within the industry. Market sentiment holds the belief that newbuilding prices might have already , or are close to reaching their bottom, especially since steel prices have been firming during the second quarter of the year and one can safely assume that it wont make much economic sense for yards to push their newbuilding prices further down. In terms of reported deals this week, BP has also shaken the wet market with its order last week at STX, Korea of ten Aframaxes for high $50m each and 3 Suezmaxes for high $60 each, for delivery between 2015 an 2016. The vessels are of very high specification including a lot of extras as well as Salt Water Scrubber system in order to comply with tier 3 SOX requirements".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 26 December 12
SHIP OWNERS WRAP UP NEWBUILDING DEALS PRIOR TO YEAR END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the year inches closer and closer to its end, many ship owners are looking to close deals for newbuilding vessels they have been negotiating duri ...
Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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