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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 16 September 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA EXPECTED TO BE STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed with most indices closing positive except for the Panamax index.
The main sentiment seems to be ...
Saturday, 15 September 12
FINANCE MINISTRY OPPOSES TAX INCENTIVE PLAN FOR COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Finance Ministry has turned down the idea of providing a fiscal incentive to the country’s coal mining ind ...
Friday, 14 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKS TOWARDS CHINA FOR SOME POSITIVE NEWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market freight rates submerged underwater for a large part of the year, dry bulk owners are looking for some positive enhancement ...
Friday, 14 September 12
GOVT OFFERS CONDITIONAL TAX HOLIDAY TO AILING COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, acknowledging difficulties encountered by coal miners due to a p ...
Thursday, 13 September 12
PANAMAX: THE NEGATIVE TREND, POOR SENTIMENT CONTINUES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Lack of cargoes and a growing list of available ships is causing rates to slip for all Atlantic trades.
The only trade keeping somewhat s ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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