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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 19 September 12
CHURCHILL STRENGTHENS LITIGATION TEAM WITH APPOINTMENT OF NICHOLAS SMITH AS MANAGING DIRECTOR
COALspot.com - Churchill Mining PLC (AIM: CHL) has announced that, Mr Nicholas Smith has joined the board of the Company and has been appointed as t ...
Wednesday, 19 September 12
DRY BULK TERMINALS SINGAPORE
Press Release - Dry bulk terminals are used all around the world to handle large quantities of bulk materials, like minerals, grains, etc. In today& ...
Tuesday, 18 September 12
JORC CODE REVISION - EXPOSURE DRAFT RELEASED FOR COMMENT
COALspot.com - The Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC) has today released for public comment the exposure draft of the JORC Code (2012) ...
Monday, 17 September 12
YEAR TO DATE, BUMA PRODUCED 231.1 MILLION BCM OF OVERBURDEN
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk has removed 31.5 million bcm (+6.0 percent YoY) overburden in August 2012 totaled 31.5 million bcm ( ...
Sunday, 16 September 12
GLOBAL LOW DEMAND ; INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIP
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 1.345 percent W-O-W on Friday, 14 September 2012, closing but gai ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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