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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 09 October 12
REALM RESOURCES RECOMMENCES DRILLING AT KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com : Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX) has announced that it has commenced work on the phase three technical programme at its Katingan Project in ...
Sunday, 07 October 12
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA FELL AGAIN IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price has lost US$ 0.17 per MT M-M.
The monthly coal referen ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR DECEMBER'13 DELIVERY GAINED 1.3 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery gained 0.098 percent and 0.164 percent W-W and D-D respectively o ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
FREIGHT MARKET IS LIKELY TO PICK AFTER THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market appeared to be seeing some increase BDI up by 14.23 pct closing at 875 points. The Cape and Panamax index also saw ...
Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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