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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 11 October 12
SINGAPORE BASED COAL SOURCE AND SHIPPING BAGS 300K MT IMPORTED COAL SUPPLY CONTRACT FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - India-based paper manufacturer Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited has awarded a tender for 300,000 mt of imported steam co ...
Thursday, 11 October 12
PANAMAX : SINCE LAST WEEK RATES HAS FIRMED FOR ALL TRADES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to East Med were around USD 14k and B ...
Thursday, 11 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY AFTER CHINESE HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn't yet staged a solid rebound after last week's holidays in China, as many would have expected. Indeed, many analysts were ...
Wednesday, 10 October 12
NEW BUILDING MARKET ON A QUIET WEEK, DUE TO ASIAN HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The newbuilding ordering activity has been more than quite during the course of the past week, as a result of holidays in both Korea and China. Acco ...
Wednesday, 10 October 12
TAPPING OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN GLOBAL ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE
Press Release: Mining sector will continue to play a significant role in supporting industrial and economic development in Indonesia which is curren ...
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Showing 4541 to 4545 news of total 6871 |
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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