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Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of their fleet and investing a new one, i.e. selling high and buying low. As the current market conditions favor the buying part of the market, with asset values on a downward path during the past few years, it's not easy to pick the right time, since next week a vessel with similar specifications to the one purchased, may have lost an additonal few thousand dollars off its value and in shipping even those matter.
As a result, it is very difficult to predict with full accuracy the proper timing, not to mention estimate where vessel values will have moved during the next couple of months. According to the latest weekly report from Piraeus-based Intermodal, despite the fact that most market pundits continually voice that second-hand and newbuilding prices have the potential to fall by as much as 20-30% in the next few months, there are always "Black Swan" events which catch everyone by surprise.
In his analysis, Intermodal's Panos Makrinos notes that "taking the case however that asset prices may drop further, it makes fair reason for any prospective buyer who currently has serious interest in buying new vessels, to wait for some time before taking any decisive action. All that being said, such a decision may well be within minimal risk of an upward swing in asset prices but always entailing some".
He added that "according to current market anticipation, the right time to buy a second-hand vessel or a newbuilding will be some point in the first half of 2013. The expectation is that prices will more accurately reflect the current low freight levels experienced as well as the lack of serious buying interest. The question that arises here is whether this common thinking is indeed reasonable and able in itself to persuade all these prospective Buyers to wait despite the discounted prices offered. In essence, their choice to wait means that they would forgo any potential gains that could be succeeded from acquiring modern second hand or newbuilding vessels at current levels. The question is to what extent should owners be chasing the market bottom, especially in the case were they are planning to make more than one vessel acquisition" he noted.
Makrinos also mentions that "in the case of new orders we can see a further case for owners to take on this decisive action, since we all appreciate that what both the dry and wet sectors need right now is ever stronger demolition activity in order to counterbalance all the new deliveries that we have seen in 2012 so far. As mentioned in our weekly report at the end of last month, in the dry sector alone we have seen more than 1,000 dry bulk carriers delivered since the start of the year with over 85 million tons of deadweight capacity and there is still time to go before the end of the year. This may well have been offset by the record number of demolitions seen, however we it has not been all smooth sailing in the scrap market. Demo prices have recently been under pressure and with a lack of clear market direction it looks as though they could possible soften further by the end of the year if we continue to see the current strong supply of demo tonnage in combination with weak steel demand.
What one might voice, is whether all this should truly influence one’s decision for further ordering. A new vessel is always treated better amongst charterers than an old one, while at the same time you would not expect to miss out on any “Party” while waiting for delivery. The argument as to whether one should order a new building or buy a secondhand unit will continue on for some time, however what is imperative and would be seen as an encouraging sign, is a more active stance towards demolition, especially while the current scrap steel prices still hold their ground. After all no-one knows what the New Year may have in stall for the shipping industry and it may well be better to be with cash at hand" the analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 29 October 12
US COAL EXPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 125 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR - EIA
COALspot.com - US coal exports are expected to reach 125 million tons this year, surpassing the old record of about 113 million tons set in 1981, sa ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS (FOB ) FOR DECEMBER 2012 DELIVERY STAYED FLAT D-D
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery flat on D-D but gained 0.38 percent on W-W on Friday, 26 October 2012, ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The Cape size sector continued to remain active with iron ore movement being steady. All other sectors were down.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 26 October 12
SHIPPING MARKETS HEADING FOR DIVISION AND MULTI-TIER WILL BECOME THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It seems that something is expected to be fundamentally different in the way that the shipping markets will be operating in the future, according to ...
Friday, 26 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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