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Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of their fleet and investing a new one, i.e. selling high and buying low. As the current market conditions favor the buying part of the market, with asset values on a downward path during the past few years, it's not easy to pick the right time, since next week a vessel with similar specifications to the one purchased, may have lost an additonal few thousand dollars off its value and in shipping even those matter.
As a result, it is very difficult to predict with full accuracy the proper timing, not to mention estimate where vessel values will have moved during the next couple of months. According to the latest weekly report from Piraeus-based Intermodal, despite the fact that most market pundits continually voice that second-hand and newbuilding prices have the potential to fall by as much as 20-30% in the next few months, there are always "Black Swan" events which catch everyone by surprise.
In his analysis, Intermodal's Panos Makrinos notes that "taking the case however that asset prices may drop further, it makes fair reason for any prospective buyer who currently has serious interest in buying new vessels, to wait for some time before taking any decisive action. All that being said, such a decision may well be within minimal risk of an upward swing in asset prices but always entailing some".
He added that "according to current market anticipation, the right time to buy a second-hand vessel or a newbuilding will be some point in the first half of 2013. The expectation is that prices will more accurately reflect the current low freight levels experienced as well as the lack of serious buying interest. The question that arises here is whether this common thinking is indeed reasonable and able in itself to persuade all these prospective Buyers to wait despite the discounted prices offered. In essence, their choice to wait means that they would forgo any potential gains that could be succeeded from acquiring modern second hand or newbuilding vessels at current levels. The question is to what extent should owners be chasing the market bottom, especially in the case were they are planning to make more than one vessel acquisition" he noted.
Makrinos also mentions that "in the case of new orders we can see a further case for owners to take on this decisive action, since we all appreciate that what both the dry and wet sectors need right now is ever stronger demolition activity in order to counterbalance all the new deliveries that we have seen in 2012 so far. As mentioned in our weekly report at the end of last month, in the dry sector alone we have seen more than 1,000 dry bulk carriers delivered since the start of the year with over 85 million tons of deadweight capacity and there is still time to go before the end of the year. This may well have been offset by the record number of demolitions seen, however we it has not been all smooth sailing in the scrap market. Demo prices have recently been under pressure and with a lack of clear market direction it looks as though they could possible soften further by the end of the year if we continue to see the current strong supply of demo tonnage in combination with weak steel demand.
What one might voice, is whether all this should truly influence one’s decision for further ordering. A new vessel is always treated better amongst charterers than an old one, while at the same time you would not expect to miss out on any “Party” while waiting for delivery. The argument as to whether one should order a new building or buy a secondhand unit will continue on for some time, however what is imperative and would be seen as an encouraging sign, is a more active stance towards demolition, especially while the current scrap steel prices still hold their ground. After all no-one knows what the New Year may have in stall for the shipping industry and it may well be better to be with cash at hand" the analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 01 November 12
KOMIPO LOOKING FOR 440,000 MT OF 4600 KCAL/KG NAR COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd.(KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies or traders to supply of 440,000 Metric ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
CAPESIZE RATES FALL, DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It was another lackluster session yesterday in the dry bulk markets, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating by 1.63 p ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
HANDY : WCI-CHINA RATES ARE AT AROUND USD 5,000 AND ECI-CHINA AROUND USD 4000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains quiet due to a lack of cargoes and an increased supply of ships. Rates from the Continent to east Med were around ...
Tuesday, 30 October 12
COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE BY FIVE PERCENT IN 2013 - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive reported that, Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) chairman Bob Kamandanu has estimated that Indonesian coal production will ...
Tuesday, 30 October 12
NEW BUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY KEEPS ON RETREATING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have refrained from placing any new orders of vessels during the course of the past few days, according to shipbroker reports. According ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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