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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 06 August 12
3RD ANNUAL INDONESIA POWER
Press Release - 3rd Annual Indonesia Power is Indonesia’s premier power event, where commercial opportunities and new projects are identified. ...
Monday, 06 August 12
COAL EXPORTS COULD ADD $2B TO $6B ANNUALLY TO U.S. ECONOMY - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Business groups backing Pacific Northwest coal export proposals on Thursday lauded a new report that claims increased U.S. coal exports could bring ...
Sunday, 05 August 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE WAY UP
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for September 2012 delivery gain 1.36 percent on Friday (3 August 2012) closing W-o-W but gained& ...
Sunday, 05 August 12
INDONESIA'S ADARO TRIMS PRODUCTION FORECAST, CITES BAD ECONOMY - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta globe reported that, Adaro Energy, the country’s second-largest coal producer, has cut its annual production forecast to between ...
Sunday, 05 August 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET TO STAY WEAK NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to soften further in all segments.
The BDI was down by 8.68 pct closing at 852 points. The cape index ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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