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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 11 August 12
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE HAS LOST 27.78 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fell again in August.
The monthly coal reference price for coal sales this month fell 3.32 percent. HBA fell ...
Saturday, 11 August 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS SEEN MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for September 2012 delivery gain 1.29 percent W-o-W on Friday (10 August 2012) closing but lost 1 ...
Friday, 10 August 12
DRY BULK MARKET DROWNING FROM TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been overflowing with new building vessels, despite the fact that demand is more or less (and minus the seasonal factors) ri ...
Thursday, 09 August 12
3RD ANNUAL SHALE GAS
Press Release - With the North American shale gas boom, IBC’s 3rd Annual Shale Gas explores optimal strategies to monetize Asia’s domest ...
Wednesday, 08 August 12
EXPLOITASI AIMS TO RAISE RP 2.7T FOR ACQUISITION - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, publicly listed coal miner PT Exploitasi Energi Indonesia (CNKO) is seeking to raise Rp 2.7 trillion (US$286.2 milli ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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