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Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affect the market balance. Volumes are strong,but growth is slow and easily outpaced by supply growth. While the recent downturn has been hardest on the Panamax and Capesize segments, the smaller vessel sizes are unlikely to stay immune as the market tumbles. “To sum up our forecast for the coming 6 weeks, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average rates will remain at depressed levels but move slowly up from current very low levels but are not expected to exceed USD 10,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 5,000-9,000 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to stay at the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, moving sideways and less erratic, are set to stay at the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day” said BIMCO.
Meanwhile, it notes that the demolition market sentiment is weak right now across the board of the four main breaker nations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and China. As May went by, a combination of factors such as falling steel prices, a historically low Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and pretty full scrap yards following the buying spree in first four months, resulted in a quick lowering of the demolition price (USD per ldt) offers from buyers to the tune of 10% over a couple of months. This development has prompted several owners to withdraw scrap candidates from the market as they became unimpressed by the offered rates. At the end of May USD 435 per ldt was offered for General cargo and USD 455 per ldt for tankers. The Indian Rupee was trading at 56.09 to the US Dollar at the end of May, compared with 52.64 a month earlier.
“This may convert the recent rush to the breakers that has taken out dry bulk tonnage almost at record quarterly levels in Q1-2012, but has also taken lots of over-aged containerships and tankers out of the market. During the first quarter 142 vessels of 7.85 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet; this is second only to Q2-2011, where 127 vessels of 8.74 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet according to CRSL data. In spite of the weak sentiment in the demolition market that is likely to slow down activity in the coming months, BIMCO is adjusting its demolition outlook slightly up from 20 million DWT for 2012 as a whole to 25 million DWT. This adjusted outlook comes on the back of an extended poor freight market, a market that appears hard to escape” said BIMCO’s analysis.
TONNAGE SUPPLY
In terms of supply, the report states that “following the largest single months of newbuilt deliveries ever in January 2012, the pace of deliveries has fortunately slowed down closer to 2011 levels. During the past year, deliveries of Handysize vessels have accounted for roughly 10% of added capacity. This stability is mirrored across the dry bulk segment over the past year. However, most recently we have seen some fluctuations in Capesize capacity added to the fleet, increasing from 41% in January to 54% in April. While Handymax and Panamax hold steady at 20% and 25% respectively as a proportion of the dry bulk fleet, Handysize is likely to diminish from current level at 13%, while Capesize is likely to expand as a proportion of the entire fleet. 45% of all new deliveries in the past year were Capesize vessels and the current proportion stands at 41%.
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk remained larger than expected during April and May, continuing the frantic delivery pace of Q1. During the first 5 months, as much as 47 million DWT set a new World Record, beating the old one from 2011. The frantic pace has put 2012 on course to possibly surpass the 2011 total delivery of 98 million DWT. The upbeat pace is a result of lower than expected delay and slippage. As this new trend appears to be sticky, it has been taken into account and subsequently lifted our delivery estimates for 2012 to 101 million DWT. So far, the active fleet has grown by 5.4% in 2012 as 127 Handysizes, 140 Handymaxes, 162 Panamaxes and 115 Capesize vessels were delivered. Weighing against this massive inflow is strong demolition pace which has accounted for the removal of 13.5 million DWT so far. Recently, demolition prices have decreased somewhat. This may result in a slower demolition pace going forward” mentioned BIMCO.
It concluded on the supply side of the market, by stating that “in the previous report two months ago we provided short-term projections that the Handysize newbuilding prices could be heading further South before firming a bit again. Our estimates were for 32 k-35 k to hit USD 20 million. During May, orders for six 39.5 k Handysize vessels were signed at USD 22.3 million apiece. The vessels were even reported to be highly sophisticated, fuel efficient and built in China. The above-mentioned Handysize orders were amongst the 113 dry bulk orders in total placed during the first five months. This slowdown in ordering is surely a sign of very poor market conditions and a souring of future prospects as the oversupply simply gets worse by the day, as can be seen from the bullish delivery pace. During the first five months of 2011, 253 orders were placed; this translated into an ordering slowdown of 55% in 2012” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 28 July 12
CAL 2013 COAL SWAPS ARE HIGHER COMPARED TO SEPT 2012 PRICES
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for September 2012 delivery gain 0.47 percent on Friday (27 July 2012) closing DoD but lost 0.90 ...
Friday, 27 July 12
PACIFIC MARKET REMAINED FLAT - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market continued its downward trend from last week with what appears to be a summer lull across the board. A trip from the USG t ...
Wednesday, 25 July 12
BUKIT ASAMS H1 REVENUE JUMPED BY 13 PERCENT
COALspot.com - PT Bukit Asam (Persero), Tbk., the state owned coal miner's revenue in H1 2012, has jumped 13 percent to IDR 5.79 trillion (approxim ...
Wednesday, 25 July 12
BUMI RESOURCES MINERALS SECURED PINJAM PAKAI FOR ITS ZINC AND LEAD PROJECT
COALspot.com - PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk. ("BRMS" or "the Company") today reported that its 80% owned subsidiary, PT Dairi ...
Tuesday, 24 July 12
SHIP OWNERS WAITING FOR SHIP PRICES TO FALL FURTHER BEFORE MOVING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the summer season already well under way and many ship owners getting ready for the autumn, the sale & purchasing activity of second hand v ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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