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Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affect the market balance. Volumes are strong,but growth is slow and easily outpaced by supply growth. While the recent downturn has been hardest on the Panamax and Capesize segments, the smaller vessel sizes are unlikely to stay immune as the market tumbles. “To sum up our forecast for the coming 6 weeks, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average rates will remain at depressed levels but move slowly up from current very low levels but are not expected to exceed USD 10,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 5,000-9,000 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to stay at the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, moving sideways and less erratic, are set to stay at the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day” said BIMCO.
Meanwhile, it notes that the demolition market sentiment is weak right now across the board of the four main breaker nations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and China. As May went by, a combination of factors such as falling steel prices, a historically low Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and pretty full scrap yards following the buying spree in first four months, resulted in a quick lowering of the demolition price (USD per ldt) offers from buyers to the tune of 10% over a couple of months. This development has prompted several owners to withdraw scrap candidates from the market as they became unimpressed by the offered rates. At the end of May USD 435 per ldt was offered for General cargo and USD 455 per ldt for tankers. The Indian Rupee was trading at 56.09 to the US Dollar at the end of May, compared with 52.64 a month earlier.
“This may convert the recent rush to the breakers that has taken out dry bulk tonnage almost at record quarterly levels in Q1-2012, but has also taken lots of over-aged containerships and tankers out of the market. During the first quarter 142 vessels of 7.85 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet; this is second only to Q2-2011, where 127 vessels of 8.74 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet according to CRSL data. In spite of the weak sentiment in the demolition market that is likely to slow down activity in the coming months, BIMCO is adjusting its demolition outlook slightly up from 20 million DWT for 2012 as a whole to 25 million DWT. This adjusted outlook comes on the back of an extended poor freight market, a market that appears hard to escape” said BIMCO’s analysis.
TONNAGE SUPPLY
In terms of supply, the report states that “following the largest single months of newbuilt deliveries ever in January 2012, the pace of deliveries has fortunately slowed down closer to 2011 levels. During the past year, deliveries of Handysize vessels have accounted for roughly 10% of added capacity. This stability is mirrored across the dry bulk segment over the past year. However, most recently we have seen some fluctuations in Capesize capacity added to the fleet, increasing from 41% in January to 54% in April. While Handymax and Panamax hold steady at 20% and 25% respectively as a proportion of the dry bulk fleet, Handysize is likely to diminish from current level at 13%, while Capesize is likely to expand as a proportion of the entire fleet. 45% of all new deliveries in the past year were Capesize vessels and the current proportion stands at 41%.
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk remained larger than expected during April and May, continuing the frantic delivery pace of Q1. During the first 5 months, as much as 47 million DWT set a new World Record, beating the old one from 2011. The frantic pace has put 2012 on course to possibly surpass the 2011 total delivery of 98 million DWT. The upbeat pace is a result of lower than expected delay and slippage. As this new trend appears to be sticky, it has been taken into account and subsequently lifted our delivery estimates for 2012 to 101 million DWT. So far, the active fleet has grown by 5.4% in 2012 as 127 Handysizes, 140 Handymaxes, 162 Panamaxes and 115 Capesize vessels were delivered. Weighing against this massive inflow is strong demolition pace which has accounted for the removal of 13.5 million DWT so far. Recently, demolition prices have decreased somewhat. This may result in a slower demolition pace going forward” mentioned BIMCO.
It concluded on the supply side of the market, by stating that “in the previous report two months ago we provided short-term projections that the Handysize newbuilding prices could be heading further South before firming a bit again. Our estimates were for 32 k-35 k to hit USD 20 million. During May, orders for six 39.5 k Handysize vessels were signed at USD 22.3 million apiece. The vessels were even reported to be highly sophisticated, fuel efficient and built in China. The above-mentioned Handysize orders were amongst the 113 dry bulk orders in total placed during the first five months. This slowdown in ordering is surely a sign of very poor market conditions and a souring of future prospects as the oversupply simply gets worse by the day, as can be seen from the bullish delivery pace. During the first five months of 2011, 253 orders were placed; this translated into an ordering slowdown of 55% in 2012” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 03 August 12
INDIA - LIGHTS OUT! - SALVA
The Indian power sector hit global headlines this week for all the wrong reasons. Firstly, on Monday, over 350 million people lost power across nort ...
Thursday, 02 August 12
OIL & GAS COMPANIES TO MEET IN MYANMAR FOR UPDATES ON NEW ROUND OF BIDDING AND INVESTMENT POTENTIAL IN UPSTREAM OIL, GAS, AND POWER GENERATION
Press Release - 2nd MOGP Summit (Myanmar Oil, Gas & Power) will convene in Yangon from 3 – 6 September 2012, to unveil new round of biddin ...
Thursday, 02 August 12
DRY BULK MARKET RATES CONTINUE SLUMP AMID SLOWER DEMAND NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on its downward path Wednesday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) kept retreating to new lows. The index was down by 2.12 perce ...
Monday, 30 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In an interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, Mr. Yannis Pachoulis, President of the Hellenic Shipbrokers' Association, remains cautiously ...
Sunday, 29 July 12
FREIGHT MARKET MOMENTUM CONTINUES TO WEAK
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to soft this week with all the segments dropped and the BDI fell below 1,000 points and closed at 933 po ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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