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Wednesday, 02 May 12
CHINA BLACKOUTS HIGHLIGHT PRICING POLICY WEAKNESS - FITCH
Fitch reported that, the likelihood of further electricity blackouts in China this summer underlines Fitch's view of the basic problem facing thermal electricity generators - that the tariff framework is not sustainable in the long term.
The problem centres on China's thermal or coal-fired plants, which in 2011 represented 72.5% of total electricity production of 4,692.8TWh, and are likely to remain the backbone of electricity generation for the foreseeable future. The problem is not with China's national electricity grid, which is well developed, but rather with the non-viability of the pricing mechanism for the coal-fired generators.
The Chinese thermal generators are unwilling to produce excess electricity in peak periods when their marginal generation costs are above the tariffs the government will allow them to charge the grid companies. Tariff adjustments have not been timely or sufficient despite the rising cost of coal, as the government has prioritised the management of inflation - thereby constraining profitability. The weak economics have also discouraged private-sector investment, while the state-linked thermal generators - Huaneng International ('BB+'/Stable), Datang International ('BB'/Stable), China Power International Development ('BB'/Stable), and Huadian International ('BB-'/Stable) - are now struggling with substantially weakened balance sheets.
Coal input prices for the thermal generators have increased dramatically over the past three years to end-2011, rising by an average of 16% pa. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has only allowed nationwide electricity tariffs to rise once in the last two years, by around 5% for non-residential customers in December 2011. Some tariff increases also occurred in selective provinces in April 2011, but the impact on generators' profitability was limited.
A 5% cap on annual coal price increases was introduced along with the December 2011 electricity tariff revision, but this applied only to contracted coal prices. These capped prices only represent around 30%-40% of the total needs of most thermal generators. Accordingly, large amounts of coal have to be bought on the spot market at substantially higher prices, making excess electricity production an uneconomic proposition. The substantial premium - typically 30% - on spot market prices against the capped contract coal price results in coal producers seeking ways to reduce their contracted sales in favour of spot sales, which is steadily eroding any benefit from the coal price caps.
A longer-term problem, and a potential cause of an eventual structural shortfall in generation capacity, is that limited profit - or losses - from thermal operations have since 2008 led to new capex in the industry being diverted away from thermal and into wind, hydro and vertical integration via coal mine acquisitions. A National Energy Administration (NEA) report dated 30 January 30 2012 confirmed that China's investment in thermal power assets fell again in 2011, by 26%, to CNY105.4bn. This trend, which cannot be reversed quickly due to the typical minimum two-year lead time to build new thermal capacity, is a serious concern given China's continued dependence on coal for its power generation.
The Chinese thermal generators are likely to face sustained weak operating cash flows and negative free cash generation under this heavily regulated environment, a situation which Fitch believes to be unsustainable in light of the continued growth in the Chinese economy. The agency believes that China is looking to introduce price reforms across the energy industries, but achieving a truly cost-reflective tariff regime is likely to take several more years, and will require a favourable inflationary climate. In the meantime, demand will continue to outstrip supply, even if - theoretically - the capacity exists within the generation system.
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Friday, 04 May 12
DEMOLITION KEY FOR DRY BULK MARKET RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The overflow of newbuilding vessels which “spilled over” into 2012 from 2011 brought the dry bulk market to a near collapse level at the ...
Thursday, 03 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE, POSTING MILD DECREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept retreating this week, although at a very low pace, on the back of a lull in demand. The industry's benchmark, th ...
Thursday, 03 May 12
MINERS DEMAND LEGAL CERTAINTY ON PRE-BAN INTERIM POLICY - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Mining companies represented by the Indonesian Mining Association (IMA) welcomed the government’s plan to impo ...
Thursday, 03 May 12
HANDY EAST COAST INDIA - CHINA AROUND USD 7000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy - Stable demand in the Atlantic offered good rates for the tonnage.
USG/Cont was worth USD 17500 and more. Baltic and Black Sea appeared to ...
Tuesday, 01 May 12
VIETNAM FEARS IT MAY NOT SEEK COAL SUPPLIES - TBKTSG / VIETNAMNET BRIDGE
TBKTSG / VietNamNet Bridge reported that, with five coal-run thermopower plants under construction, PetroVietnam alone would need 18 million tons of ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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