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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 2nd. Smaller vessel categories, supramax and panamax, are moving higher due to strong fixture activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins with capesizes being still under serious pain from hefty overtonnage and fragile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment. Overall, all vessel indices ended in green, apart from capesizes, with supramax and handysize units experiencing the sharpest gain, near to 9% in contrast with a 6.7% rise in the panamax and 6.6% fall in the capesize segment.
The first quarter of the year is about to end with capesize average time charter earnings falling below $5,000/day, while supramax vessels are earning more than $10,000/day and panamax are trading at almost the same levels with handysizes, more than $8,000/day. The BDI seems that will break the psyclological barrier of 1,000 points in the second quarter of the year as it regains strength from the firm demand for coal, grain and minor bulk cargoes. In terms of coal demand, the prospects are overwhelming for Chinese demand as China imported approximately 20.55 million tons of coal in February, 850,000 tons (4%) more than imported in January and an amazing 204% increase from February 2011 levels.
Capesize vessels seem that will suffer for a longer period of time as Chinese inventories remain hefty, despite their fall to 99,4 million tons, 500,000 tons less than a week ago. In addition, China’s government announcement for an economic growth of less than 8% in 2012 pours more uncertainty in the already volatile iron ore market for the massive buying power of the world’s largest iron ore consumer. BHP Billiton is predicting that the growth of seaborne iron trade will amount to little more than 4.4% over the course of this decade, nearly half the 8.4% growth figure achieved between 2000 and 2010.
One positive sign is that China’s daily crude steel output stood at 1,898 million tones for the first ten days of March, surging 13% from the preceding period, according to data from the China Iron & Steel Association. Steel demand has started to pick up in the world’s top consumer during March amid a gradual recovery in construction activity, but buyers remain wary about a slowdown in economic growth, which may continue to weigh on the steel sector. “Steel demand is warming up as more construction projects resume, but it is still weaker than the corresponding period of last year,” said a steel trader in Beijing.
Fears for the negative impact of last week’s tropical cyclone on the capesize segment have gone as shipping operations at the major Australia’s Port Hedland have now resumed. However, capesize vessels lost more ground this week with average time charter earrings falling to the lowest levels for over a year. The BCI has lost 97 points on a weekly basis by standing at 1,369 points, 6.6% down from previous week’s closing with vessels trading at levels of $$4,546/day, when last year were earning more than $10,000/day. Capesize spot rates on Australia to China have dropped to $7.45 per tonne, which shows a return of about $1,500/day for 180,000 dwt tons capesize vessel.
In the panamax segment, South American grain demand remains the key driver force, with BPI posting a 6.7% rise by gaining 65 points more than previous week and vessel earnings moving to more than $8,000/day. But, panamax earnings are still far below than last year’s levels, when there were more than $16,000/day, as they are facing the same headache with capesize vessels, the pain of oversupply.
Supramax and handysize units are on the spotlight as being the star performers from March 2nd by showing continuous weekly increases. The BSI ended at 1035 points last Friday, showing a 39% rise from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $10,000/day, 35% lower than last year’s levels. The BHSI ended at 551 points, 26% up from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $8,000/day, 29% less than last year.
Amid the volatile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment and the negative forecasts for a slow Chinese economic growth, Australia expects to produce record tonnages of iron ore through much of the decade, nearly all of which will be used to manufacture steel in demand. Australia iron ore exports are estimated to increase by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year. Government data release anticipates still strong demand from Chinese steel mills, the biggest buyers. Exports will rise by an annual rate of around 11 percent to reach 767 m million tonnes in 2016/17, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) predicted.
Rio Tinto, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, said that it plans to boost the output from its mines in Australia western Pilbara to 283 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2013, up from the current 225 million tonnes. David Joyce, managing director of expansion projects, said that although the rate of GDP growth in China is slowing, they remain confident on the basis of the figures that they have seen for a solid growth this year. A positive development for the fate of capesize operators is that Chinese steel demand has started to pick up amid a gradual recovery in construction activity.
Although the negative sentiment that currently persists in Chinese iron ore market, with worries for a long last recession in the world’s largest consumer country, big miners are betting on a soft landing for the world’s second biggest economy. It is believed that China’s import demand would continue to grow over the next several years, albeit at a slower pace, which should be enough reason for commodity producers to continue their expansion plans. “Nobody is saying that demand growth in China for iron ore is going to go away, just that growth rates will not be as high as they were,” said Mike Young, managing director of BC Iron, which relies on sales to China for all its revenue. Furthermore, recent investigations by Raw Materials Group revealed that global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tones per year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for the commodity continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace than during the last decade.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 08 March 12
INDONESIA'S COAL SECTOR CAN BENEFIT FROM CLEARER REGULATIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says Indonesia's coal mining sector should continue to see strong growth prospects but can benefit from clearer and more predictable ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE; CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD INCREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on rising back to healthier levels yesterday, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry’s benchmark, marking its 8 ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE GAINS FOR SECOND MONTH
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly coal reference price for sales in March by 1.15 percent, the second increase since February.
The Mini ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA TO LIMIT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN MINES TO 49 PERCENT WITHIN 10 YEARS OF PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - Foreign holders of mining licenses in Indonesia have to divert 51% of their stakes to Indonesian government or domestic entitie ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
ASSESS ASIAS POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENTS AND APPETITE FOR SHALE AT SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - Assess Asia’s Potential, Developments and Appetite for Shale at Shale Gas Summit on 23-24 Apr, 2012 in Beijing
China is rep ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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