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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 2nd. Smaller vessel categories, supramax and panamax, are moving higher due to strong fixture activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins with capesizes being still under serious pain from hefty overtonnage and fragile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment. Overall, all vessel indices ended in green, apart from capesizes, with supramax and handysize units experiencing the sharpest gain, near to 9% in contrast with a 6.7% rise in the panamax and 6.6% fall in the capesize segment.
The first quarter of the year is about to end with capesize average time charter earnings falling below $5,000/day, while supramax vessels are earning more than $10,000/day and panamax are trading at almost the same levels with handysizes, more than $8,000/day. The BDI seems that will break the psyclological barrier of 1,000 points in the second quarter of the year as it regains strength from the firm demand for coal, grain and minor bulk cargoes. In terms of coal demand, the prospects are overwhelming for Chinese demand as China imported approximately 20.55 million tons of coal in February, 850,000 tons (4%) more than imported in January and an amazing 204% increase from February 2011 levels.
Capesize vessels seem that will suffer for a longer period of time as Chinese inventories remain hefty, despite their fall to 99,4 million tons, 500,000 tons less than a week ago. In addition, China’s government announcement for an economic growth of less than 8% in 2012 pours more uncertainty in the already volatile iron ore market for the massive buying power of the world’s largest iron ore consumer. BHP Billiton is predicting that the growth of seaborne iron trade will amount to little more than 4.4% over the course of this decade, nearly half the 8.4% growth figure achieved between 2000 and 2010.
One positive sign is that China’s daily crude steel output stood at 1,898 million tones for the first ten days of March, surging 13% from the preceding period, according to data from the China Iron & Steel Association. Steel demand has started to pick up in the world’s top consumer during March amid a gradual recovery in construction activity, but buyers remain wary about a slowdown in economic growth, which may continue to weigh on the steel sector. “Steel demand is warming up as more construction projects resume, but it is still weaker than the corresponding period of last year,” said a steel trader in Beijing.
Fears for the negative impact of last week’s tropical cyclone on the capesize segment have gone as shipping operations at the major Australia’s Port Hedland have now resumed. However, capesize vessels lost more ground this week with average time charter earrings falling to the lowest levels for over a year. The BCI has lost 97 points on a weekly basis by standing at 1,369 points, 6.6% down from previous week’s closing with vessels trading at levels of $$4,546/day, when last year were earning more than $10,000/day. Capesize spot rates on Australia to China have dropped to $7.45 per tonne, which shows a return of about $1,500/day for 180,000 dwt tons capesize vessel.
In the panamax segment, South American grain demand remains the key driver force, with BPI posting a 6.7% rise by gaining 65 points more than previous week and vessel earnings moving to more than $8,000/day. But, panamax earnings are still far below than last year’s levels, when there were more than $16,000/day, as they are facing the same headache with capesize vessels, the pain of oversupply.
Supramax and handysize units are on the spotlight as being the star performers from March 2nd by showing continuous weekly increases. The BSI ended at 1035 points last Friday, showing a 39% rise from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $10,000/day, 35% lower than last year’s levels. The BHSI ended at 551 points, 26% up from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $8,000/day, 29% less than last year.
Amid the volatile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment and the negative forecasts for a slow Chinese economic growth, Australia expects to produce record tonnages of iron ore through much of the decade, nearly all of which will be used to manufacture steel in demand. Australia iron ore exports are estimated to increase by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year. Government data release anticipates still strong demand from Chinese steel mills, the biggest buyers. Exports will rise by an annual rate of around 11 percent to reach 767 m million tonnes in 2016/17, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) predicted.
Rio Tinto, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, said that it plans to boost the output from its mines in Australia western Pilbara to 283 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2013, up from the current 225 million tonnes. David Joyce, managing director of expansion projects, said that although the rate of GDP growth in China is slowing, they remain confident on the basis of the figures that they have seen for a solid growth this year. A positive development for the fate of capesize operators is that Chinese steel demand has started to pick up amid a gradual recovery in construction activity.
Although the negative sentiment that currently persists in Chinese iron ore market, with worries for a long last recession in the world’s largest consumer country, big miners are betting on a soft landing for the world’s second biggest economy. It is believed that China’s import demand would continue to grow over the next several years, albeit at a slower pace, which should be enough reason for commodity producers to continue their expansion plans. “Nobody is saying that demand growth in China for iron ore is going to go away, just that growth rates will not be as high as they were,” said Mike Young, managing director of BC Iron, which relies on sales to China for all its revenue. Furthermore, recent investigations by Raw Materials Group revealed that global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tones per year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for the commodity continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace than during the last decade.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by ...
Wednesday, 14 March 12
COKAL TAKES ANOTHER STEP IN DEVELOPING INFRASTRUCTURE TO FACILITATE METALLURGICAL COAL PRODUCTION
Global coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), has signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoU’s) to develop two river ports and two small scale coa ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
CLARIFICATION OF GR 24 OF 2012 REQUIRING DIVESTMENT OF FOREIGN OWNERSHIP OVER TIME
ASX Announcement
Global metallurgical coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), is responding to the recent announcement of the Indonesian Ministry of ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
EUROPEAN COAL CONTANGO: FURTHER STEEPNESS REQUIRED TO MAKE LARGE SCALE PHYSICAL TIME SPREAD ARBITRAGE MORE ATTRACTIVE - MISWIN MAHESH, BARCLAYS CAPITAL
COALspot.com - "With the contango between the Y+1 and M+1 ARA delivered contract now averaging above the $14/t level, there is an increasing in ...
Monday, 12 March 12
DELTA DUNIA 1M OVERBURDEN DROPS 3.1% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesia's second largest coal mining contractor PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) reported a 25 million bank ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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