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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 2nd. Smaller vessel categories, supramax and panamax, are moving higher due to strong fixture activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins with capesizes being still under serious pain from hefty overtonnage and fragile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment. Overall, all vessel indices ended in green, apart from capesizes, with supramax and handysize units experiencing the sharpest gain, near to 9% in contrast with a 6.7% rise in the panamax and 6.6% fall in the capesize segment.
The first quarter of the year is about to end with capesize average time charter earnings falling below $5,000/day, while supramax vessels are earning more than $10,000/day and panamax are trading at almost the same levels with handysizes, more than $8,000/day. The BDI seems that will break the psyclological barrier of 1,000 points in the second quarter of the year as it regains strength from the firm demand for coal, grain and minor bulk cargoes. In terms of coal demand, the prospects are overwhelming for Chinese demand as China imported approximately 20.55 million tons of coal in February, 850,000 tons (4%) more than imported in January and an amazing 204% increase from February 2011 levels.
Capesize vessels seem that will suffer for a longer period of time as Chinese inventories remain hefty, despite their fall to 99,4 million tons, 500,000 tons less than a week ago. In addition, China’s government announcement for an economic growth of less than 8% in 2012 pours more uncertainty in the already volatile iron ore market for the massive buying power of the world’s largest iron ore consumer. BHP Billiton is predicting that the growth of seaborne iron trade will amount to little more than 4.4% over the course of this decade, nearly half the 8.4% growth figure achieved between 2000 and 2010.
One positive sign is that China’s daily crude steel output stood at 1,898 million tones for the first ten days of March, surging 13% from the preceding period, according to data from the China Iron & Steel Association. Steel demand has started to pick up in the world’s top consumer during March amid a gradual recovery in construction activity, but buyers remain wary about a slowdown in economic growth, which may continue to weigh on the steel sector. “Steel demand is warming up as more construction projects resume, but it is still weaker than the corresponding period of last year,” said a steel trader in Beijing.
Fears for the negative impact of last week’s tropical cyclone on the capesize segment have gone as shipping operations at the major Australia’s Port Hedland have now resumed. However, capesize vessels lost more ground this week with average time charter earrings falling to the lowest levels for over a year. The BCI has lost 97 points on a weekly basis by standing at 1,369 points, 6.6% down from previous week’s closing with vessels trading at levels of $$4,546/day, when last year were earning more than $10,000/day. Capesize spot rates on Australia to China have dropped to $7.45 per tonne, which shows a return of about $1,500/day for 180,000 dwt tons capesize vessel.
In the panamax segment, South American grain demand remains the key driver force, with BPI posting a 6.7% rise by gaining 65 points more than previous week and vessel earnings moving to more than $8,000/day. But, panamax earnings are still far below than last year’s levels, when there were more than $16,000/day, as they are facing the same headache with capesize vessels, the pain of oversupply.
Supramax and handysize units are on the spotlight as being the star performers from March 2nd by showing continuous weekly increases. The BSI ended at 1035 points last Friday, showing a 39% rise from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $10,000/day, 35% lower than last year’s levels. The BHSI ended at 551 points, 26% up from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $8,000/day, 29% less than last year.
Amid the volatile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment and the negative forecasts for a slow Chinese economic growth, Australia expects to produce record tonnages of iron ore through much of the decade, nearly all of which will be used to manufacture steel in demand. Australia iron ore exports are estimated to increase by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year. Government data release anticipates still strong demand from Chinese steel mills, the biggest buyers. Exports will rise by an annual rate of around 11 percent to reach 767 m million tonnes in 2016/17, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) predicted.
Rio Tinto, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, said that it plans to boost the output from its mines in Australia western Pilbara to 283 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2013, up from the current 225 million tonnes. David Joyce, managing director of expansion projects, said that although the rate of GDP growth in China is slowing, they remain confident on the basis of the figures that they have seen for a solid growth this year. A positive development for the fate of capesize operators is that Chinese steel demand has started to pick up amid a gradual recovery in construction activity.
Although the negative sentiment that currently persists in Chinese iron ore market, with worries for a long last recession in the world’s largest consumer country, big miners are betting on a soft landing for the world’s second biggest economy. It is believed that China’s import demand would continue to grow over the next several years, albeit at a slower pace, which should be enough reason for commodity producers to continue their expansion plans. “Nobody is saying that demand growth in China for iron ore is going to go away, just that growth rates will not be as high as they were,” said Mike Young, managing director of BC Iron, which relies on sales to China for all its revenue. Furthermore, recent investigations by Raw Materials Group revealed that global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tones per year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for the commodity continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace than during the last decade.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 07 July 12
EXCESS SUPPLY & WEAK DEMAND KEEP COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps for August and Q4 deliveries slipped slightly this week. SGX’s Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swap ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
BALTIC INDEX UP ON STRONG CAPE, PANAMAX RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week all the segments were firmed up with BDI up by 15.23 pct (up by 153 points) closing at 1,157 points.
The cape index also ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET NOT ABLE TO FIND SOLID GROUND SAY EXPERTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the second half of each, traditionally looking the most active one, especially in terms of newbuildings being delivered, it's highly unlikely ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
GOVT GETS READY FOR $1.8B SUIT - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading Indonesian English new papers reported that, several ministries and the Attorney General’s Office held a ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET MOVES FURTHER UP THE HILL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its growth momentum by the middle of the week, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose by an additional 40 points to 1,103 p ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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