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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 01 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET RISES TO NEW HEIGHTS ON RENEWED DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept on rising this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) climbing to 1,846 points on Wednes ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INTO CHINA, THE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW - BRS
Capesize
The Capesize market in Atlantic stayed pretty firm last week with transatlantic rounds being fixed in the high twenties. Sentiment was les ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE OF INDONESIA COLLAPSED AT KUKAR, EAST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - A suspension bridge in Indonesia’s east Kalimantan province over the Mahakam river collapsed on Saturday, killing at least elev ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
BUKIT ASAM SCOUTS RP3 TRILLION PROFIT - INSIDER STORIES
The state-controlled coal miner PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) expects to post a Rp3 trillion net income this year, reaching its target which is 50% above ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET BEGINS WEEK ON HIGHER NOTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Contrary to what had been the case during the past few weeks, this one began on a high note for the dry bulk market, with the Capesize sector pullin ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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