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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 05 December 11
SGX LAUNCHED IHS MCCLOSKEY/XINHUA INFOLINK OTC CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT TODAY
COALspot.com - In order to meet the demand of the coal industry for an effective coal hedging tool with counterparty credit risk mitigation facility ...
Monday, 05 December 11
DRY BULK RATES LOOKING TO EXTEND GAINS THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize dry bulk carrier owners have had a great week, with rates rising for six straight sessions (including the end of the week before that). As ...
Sunday, 04 December 11
SUPRAMAX TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 7500 - 8000 PD
COALspot.com - The BDI and Cape index recovered this week. The BDI was up by 3.26 pct and Cape index saw a big jump and closed at 3409 points (up by ...
Saturday, 03 December 11
BORNEO TO SPEND US$600 MIO CAPEX - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN) plans to spend US$600 million capital expenditure ( ...
Friday, 02 December 11
DRY BULK CARRIERS BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS MARKET SPEEDS UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the tanker and container markets suffering dearly, it seems that the tide has once again turned in favor of the dry bulk carriers, despite over ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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