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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 01 January 12
IS INDIA FOLLOWING INDONESIA TO STANDARDIZE COAL PRICES TO GET MAXIMUM BENEFITS?
COALspot.com - Coal India limited, an Indian state owned and world largest coal producer has introduced gross calorific value (GCV) based pricing me ...
Saturday, 31 December 11
GLOBALCOAL NEWC INDEX SURGED 2.32 PERCENT
COALspot.com - globalCOAL index in Newcastle Port, benchmark for Asian market, ended substantially higher, surged 2.32 percent to US$115.47 per ...
Saturday, 31 December 11
BORNEO LUMBUNG TO BUY BUMI STAKE, SWAP CEO - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported yesterday, shareholders of Indonesian coking coal miner Borneo Lumbun ...
Friday, 30 December 11
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ISSUE PERMITS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, business associations from both the palm oil and mining sectors have suggested that the central government should re ...
Thursday, 29 December 11
NEW VESSELS DELIVERED ARE FLOODING THE OCEANS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As expected 2011 has been the year that newbuilding deliveries peaked and kept "flooding" the market, thus supressing freight rates and er ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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