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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 04 January 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERS PICKED UP IN 2011, BUT 2012 EXPECTED TO BE A DIFFERENT STORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) starting the year on a sour note, losing 114 points and ending yesterday’s session, the first of the new year, ...
Wednesday, 04 January 12
MAHAGENCO TO IMPORT LOW MOISTURE COAL
COALspot.com - Maharashtra State Power Generation Co. Ltd. is the state power generation utility owned by Government of Maharashtra, intends to proc ...
Tuesday, 03 January 12
INDONESIA COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL AGAIN
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has sets the January 2012 coal reference price at US$ 109.29 per ton or US$ 3.3 ...
Tuesday, 03 January 12
WHICH WAY WILL THE DRY BULK MARKET HEAD ON FIRST WEEK OF THE YEAR? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Dry bulk ship owners will be wondering which way will the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, will head during the first days of ...
Monday, 02 January 12
THE PROMISE OF INDIA: A BRIEF INTERRUPTION? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Future growth in Indian seaborne coal imports has sometimes been considered as one of the largest potential upsides in the currently oversupplied dr ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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