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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 26 January 12
ABM INVESTAMA SEALS US$100 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Reswara Minergi Hartama, a subsidary of PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABMM), has sealed a 2 million tons of coal export co ...
Thursday, 26 January 12
DRY BULK MARKETS DOWNFALL KNOWS NO LIMITS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s demise seems to have no visible end, as China’s Lunar Year Holidays continue this week, thus leaving demand with n ...
Wednesday, 25 January 12
CLEAN AND CLEAR MINING PERMITS TO BE COMPLETED END OF 2012 - BISNIS.COM
Bisnis.com reported that, the government plans to announce 700 mining permits with "clean and clear" status without overlapping on other p ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
ANOTHER SEVERE DROP IN THE CAPESIZE - BRS
The lunar year celebrations and the high number of new building deliveries (more than 35 Capes so far in January as owners push 2011 deliveries into ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
BUKIT ASAM FY11 NET PROFIT SURGES 50% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) estimated to book Rp3 trillion (approximately US$ 335,570,469) net prof ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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