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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 January 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERS DECLINE, AS SHIP OWNERS REALIZE OVERSUPPLY WILL "KILL" THEM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With 2012 now underway, it will be rather interesting to see how ship owners will play the "newbuilding ordering" card to their favor, as ...
Tuesday, 10 January 12
THE 4TH DEEPWATER ASIA CONGRESS 2012 WILL KICK OFF ON MAY 23 - 25
Press release - Based on the past three years’ success, SZ & W Group is excited to announce the 4th Deepwater Asia Congress will be held o ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
ICICI OUTLOOK ON INDIAN POWER, MINING,CEMENT, AND SHIPPING SECTORS PERFORMANCE IN 2012
Broking firm, ICICIdirect (India) has come out with report on sectors outlook for 2012. IRIS has collated key highlights for each sector from ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
SUPRAMAX DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 7000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
Wish You a Very Happy and Prosperous New year 2012.
COALspot.com - The last report by us was on 16th Dec 2011 and because of holidays this would ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
THARPAK CONSORTIUM FORMED TO DEVELOP MEGA ENERGY COMPLEX IN SINDH PROVINCE, PAKISTAN
Press Release: On January 5th, TharPak, LLC met with officials of the Embassy of Pakistan in Washington DC to introduce and announce the formation o ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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