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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 26 April 12
PANAMAXES AGAIN EARN MORE THAN CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of demand for Panamaxes has led the dry bulk market to new higher ground on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reaching 1,090 ...
Wednesday, 25 April 12
CHINA IMPORTS 9.76 MMT AND INDIA IMPORTS 7.03 MMT OF INDONESIAN COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 30.64* million tons of coal in March 2012, compared to 27.12* million tons i ...
Monday, 23 April 12
ALTURA ENTERS INTO AGREEMENT TO ACQUIRE 2 COAL PROJECTS IN SOUTH KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Altura Mining Limited (ASX: AJM) has announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire a further two (2) Mining Permits (IUP ...
Sunday, 22 April 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI has broken the psychological barrier of 1000 points and closed at 1067 points.
The cape index was slightly down by 2.48 pc ...
Saturday, 21 April 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS DROP 2.61 PERCENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps fell for a fifth day, according to DSP of SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps.
CFR South China Coal ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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