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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 14 August 12
SAKARI SIGNS HEADS OF AGREEMENT TO ACQUIRE SIX COAL CONCESSIONS IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Sakari has signed a Heads of Agreement (HOA) to acquire a 100% interest in up to six IUPs, covering an area of over 29,000 hectares, ...
Tuesday, 14 August 12
UNCERTAIN FUTURE FOR DRY BULK PANAMAX SHIPS - DREWRY / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk shipping market is in a poor state, with the Capesize segment the worst of all. Unfortunately, the latest analysis from Drewry Maritime ...
Monday, 13 August 12
5TH VIETNAM PORTS AND LOGISTICS 2012
Press Release - Co-hosted by VINAMARINE, the 5th Vietnam Ports and Logistics2012 will feature dedicated sessions on port and transport infrastructur ...
Monday, 13 August 12
ACTIVE DRY BULK FLEET INCREASES BY 8% SO FAR IN 2012 IN TERMS OF TONNAGE CAPACITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It’s no wonder that the dry bulk market has been tethering since the start of the year. the overflow of tonnage has been so enormous, that eve ...
Sunday, 12 August 12
COAL FREIGHT RATES FALL FLAT TO SOFT ON OVERSUPPLY, WEAK DEMAND - VISTAAR SINGAPROE
COALspot.com - The BDI continued its fall 10th August.
This week all segments were down including BDI down by 9.15 pct closing at 774 points .The ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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