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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 20 August 12
CHINESE COAL SWAPS RISE, INDONESIAN COAL CONTRACTS SOFT
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for October 2012 delivery lost -2.05 percent W-o-W on Friday (17 August 2012) closing but gained ...
Saturday, 18 August 12
BULK FREIGHT MARKETS CONTINUED THEIR DECLINE IN LINE WITH WEAK DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week also the indices fell on all segments with BDI touching lowest in almost 3 years.
The BDI closed at 714 points down by 7 ...
Thursday, 16 August 12
PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS CONFERENCE 2012
Press Release - Asia’s Premier Public Private Partnerships Conference 2012 will showcase commercial opportunities for investors and developers ...
Wednesday, 15 August 12
UT GENERATED RP 3.09 TRILLION NET INCOME
COALspot.com - As of June 2012 Indonesia’s heavy equipment market grew 14%, from 8,448 units to 9,618 units (based on UT’s internal mark ...
Tuesday, 14 August 12
SAKARI ENTERED INTO JV IN CAMBODIA TO EXPLORE COAL OPPORTUNITIES
COALspot.com - Sakari joints hands with The Royal Group of Companies in Cambodia to explore and develop coal opportunities throughout the country.
...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
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