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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 26 December 12
SHIP OWNERS WRAP UP NEWBUILDING DEALS PRIOR TO YEAR END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the year inches closer and closer to its end, many ship owners are looking to close deals for newbuilding vessels they have been negotiating duri ...
Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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