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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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