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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 01 January 14
COAL & OIL TO SET UP ANOTHER 1,600 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA - VENKATARAMANI
COALspot.com: Dubai-based Coal & Oil (C&O) Group is planning to make additional investment of around US$ 1.61 billion to set up 1,600 mega w ...
Wednesday, 01 January 14
DRY BULK CARRIER OWNERS ANTICIPATING AN EVEN STRONGER 2014 YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
To begin with, The Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team would like to wish you all a Happy and Prosperous 2014! We begin the New Year with our firs ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
INDONESIA'S COAL PRODUCTION COULD HIT 450 MMT IN 2014 - ICMA
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the fourth largest coal producer and largest coal exporter in the world, to increase coal output in year 2014 instead of th ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
MORE THAN $21 BILLION INVESTED IN SECOND HAND SHIP PURCHASES IN 2013
One thing that was apparent in the sale and purchasing markets during 2013 was the ship owners' larger appetite for vessel acquisitions, as most so ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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