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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 06 January 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS SLIDE TO $ 61.25 FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 0.32 pmt month on month on Friday 3 January 2014. Th ...
Sunday, 05 January 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 80.05, A $ 0.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 1.40 percept day on day closed at US$ 80.95 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 05 January 14
CENTRAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION OF INDIA REGISTERS CASES IN CONNECTION WITH ALLEGED SUPPLY OF LOW QUALITY INDONESIAN COAL BY A PRIVATE COMPANY TO NTPC & NSPCL
COALspot.com: The Central Bureau of Investigation of India has registered two cases regarding alleged supply of low quality imported Indonesian coal ...
Saturday, 04 January 14
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT TO DOWNSIZE ITS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET TO 400 MMT THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesia to downsize its coal production target to 400 million tons in 2014, lower than the production in 2013, which stood at 421 mi ...
Friday, 03 January 14
IN 2013 RBCT HAS, FOR THE FIRST TIME, EXPORTED MORE THAN 70 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal, the world’s largest single coal exporting terminal shipped 6.788 million tonnes of c ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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