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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 02 March 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY TO FIRM THIS PAST WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady to firm this past week. The BDI was up 7.06 pct and closed at 1258 points and the cape index was also fi ...
Friday, 28 February 14
PTBA TO INCREASE ITS COAL TERMINAL'S LOADING CAPACITY TO 25 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY JULY 2014
COALspot.com: PT. Bukit Asam (PTBA), the Indonesian government owned coal miner operates several coal mining units in Sumatera as well as in Kaliman ...
Friday, 28 February 14
U.S PRODUCED 1.9% LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 28 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET SLOWLY BUT STEADILY FINDS ITS FOOTING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market, hit by the low seasonal demand which is a typical characteristic of the first quarter of each year, is beginning to emerge from ...
Thursday, 27 February 14
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN THE ATLANTIC
Handy
The Atlantic handy/supra market experienced a downward trend this week but not a dramatic one. TA rates are down around USD 800 w-o-w lead b ...
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Showing 3826 to 3830 news of total 6871 |
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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