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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 07 March 14
INDONESIA TO PRODUCE 421 MMT OF COAL IN 2014
Coalspot.com: Indonesia finally agreed to increased 2014 coal output by as much as 6 percent to 421 million metric tons from its previous plan, a se ...
Friday, 07 March 14
US PRODUCED 19.4 MMST OF COAL IN PAST 7 DAYS, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 06 March 14
PANAMAX MARKET IS STRUGGLING IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Handy/Supra market experienced a rate increase in the Pacific. The activity itself is not too big, but spot tonnage is clearing up and ow ...
Wednesday, 05 March 14
THE BIG BULKERS HAVE IN FACT WITNESSED SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH BASINS
The BDI continues to gain back some of the lost ground, although in reality there isn't a lot to celebrate abou ...
Wednesday, 05 March 14
LEAVE IT TO CAPES TO CHANGE THE DIRECTION OF THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable+)
Leave it to Capes to change the direction of the Dry Bulk market. The big bulkers managed to drag the BDI ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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