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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 16 April 14
Q1 2014 : TERMS OF FREIGHT RATES THE PERFORMANCE IN THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOT MET THE HIGH EXPECTATIONS - INTERMODAL
This year the dates for the celebration of Easter will coincide for the Orthodox and the Catholic, so we are already seeing most people in the m ...
Tuesday, 15 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 14 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 14 April 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 60.12 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 14 April 14
INDONESIA'S Q1 COAL PRODUCTION LITTLE CHANGED EVEN WITH PRICE DROP - INVESTOR DAILY
Indonesia’s coal production by volume in the first quarter remained little changed from the same period last year despite the decline in t ...
Monday, 14 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN FOR THE MONTH & WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.18 per mt as ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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