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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 23 April 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR LOW VOLATILE BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 90,000 Metric Tons (MT) of low volatile bit ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
INDONESIAN MARCH COAL EXPORT VOLUME SURGE 9.12% TO 35.54 MMT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.9 ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
NEWCASTLE WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FELL 13.33% THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 21 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q1'15 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q4 2014 AND Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED MARGINALLY HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 PRICES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 0.87 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.15 per mt as ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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