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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 12 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 3.4% W/E DECEMBER 6
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Wednesday, 10 December 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS, INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: As 2014 is coming to an end, we look back to what has happened during the year and notice that SnP activity has been particularly sof ...
Wednesday, 10 December 14
WORLD HARD COAL MARKET 2014: PRODUCTION AND TRADE STAGNATING, IMPORTS TO GERMANY AND EUROPE ON THE DECLINE
Press Release: German Coal Importers Association (VDKi) criticizes regulations ordering reduction of CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants as ...
Tuesday, 09 December 14
PRESSURE ON CHINA COAL MINERS TO CONTINUE DESPITE GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that Chinese coal mining companies will continue to be pressured by low prices, which will persist despite recent ...
Tuesday, 09 December 14
Q4' 2015, FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 49.02 W/E 5 DEC
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.2 ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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