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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 15 December 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CRASHES THROUGH $65
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in December. HBA for t ...
Monday, 15 December 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST $3.37 M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3,37 (-5.33%) month over month and US$ 1.58 (-2.57%) ...
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Q1' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 51.45 ON 12 DEC
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Sunday, 14 December 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of commodity-shipping costs, fell 12.12 pct to 863 points week ending 12 December 2014.
Th ...
Friday, 12 December 14
LIMITED TRADING AND AN OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED HANDY SIZE SHIPS TO DOWN IN USG
Handy
We have seen the TA spot market come down this week lead by limited trading and an oversupply of tonnage in the USG, Fearnleys said in its ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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