We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 06 September 11
SEMEN GRESIK TO ACQUIRE COAL MINE FOR RP. 1 TRILLION
COALspot.com - PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) is planning to acquire a low calorific value coal concession (IUP). According to Semen Gresik, the coal mi ...
Tuesday, 06 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY POWERS THROUGH TO NEW WEEK, BUT A CORRECTION COULD BE OVERDUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s freights rates kept leaping forwards during the beginning of the week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic D ...
Monday, 05 September 11
TNPL POSTPONES BID OPENING UNTIL 12 SEPTEMBER 2011
COALspot.com - TNPL has postponed submission of the offer until 12 September 2011 on request from the supplier, an Indian trader said.
Due to Ram ...
Monday, 05 September 11
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE - ANALYSIS
Analyst : Sunil K Kumbhat
COALspot.com - As a part of the Government’s efforts to stop transfer pricing abuses which have resulted in the los ...
Saturday, 03 September 11
FEW SHIPS REPORTED FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend during last week with BDI up by about 13 pct closing at 1,740 points and cape index up ...
|
|
|
Showing 5101 to 5105 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
