We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 08 September 11
PETROSEA ADDS US$730 MIO CONTRACT
Coal mining contractor PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO), a majority owned subsidiary of energy integrated company PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY), has secured a U ...
Wednesday, 07 September 11
ANOTHER EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG WEEK FOR THE CAPESIZE MARKET - BRS
The very strong rise in Cape rates pushed through an overall improvement in the BDI this week, although relatively little benefit from the Capes has ...
Wednesday, 07 September 11
INDIA HIT BY INDONESIAS COAL PRICE - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive, an Indonesian online news portal reported that, The Indian government has complained about the price increase of Indonesian coal, ...
Wednesday, 07 September 11
SAMPUR POWER AGREEMENT SIGNED - DAILY NEWS
Daily News, Sri Lank's national news paper reported that, the agreement for the setting up of a 500 MW coal-fired power plant at Sampur, Trincomale ...
Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohm ...
|
|
|
Showing 5096 to 5100 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
