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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 01 November 11
DRY BULK MARKETS CORRECTION SPILLS OVER ONTO NEW WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is losing steam, as evidenced by the falls experienced last week, which were also apparent at the beginning of the new week. A l ...
Monday, 31 October 11
CHINAS HUNGER FOR INDONESIAN COAL AT THREE YEAR-HIGH AS WINTER NEARS - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE
COALspot.com - Chinese demand for power-station coal from Indonesia has soared to its highest level in three years, as central heating plants and po ...
Saturday, 29 October 11
ATLAS RESOURCES SEALS US$95 MIO LOAN - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal producer PT Atlas Resources Tbk, that is controlled by Indonesian businessman Andre Abdi, has secured US$95 mill ...
Saturday, 29 October 11
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT LIKELY TO REMAIN SOFT
COALspot.com - The market continued to slow down and all segment were down this week.
The biggest drop was in the Cape Index down by 8.19 pct&nbs ...
Friday, 28 October 11
RISING COAL PRICES TO WORSEN CHINA'S WINTER POWER CRUNCH - CRI ENGLISH
CRI English reported that, the rising price of coal is fueling concerns about a power crunch set to plague China this winter, analysts said.
The ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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