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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 02 November 11
MMTC TO BUY 3.73 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 2011- 2013
COALspot.com - India’s state-owned coal and mineral trader MMTC looking for 3.73 million tons of power plant coal for the period 2011 - 2012/ ...
Wednesday, 02 November 11
PANAMAX MARKET BECAME QUIETER AFTER THE RECENT RECOVERY - BRS
There were substantial losses across the board this week: the BDI lost 6.3% to end at 2,018 and the BCI 8.2% to end 3,274. In the smaller sizes the ...
Tuesday, 01 November 11
BORNEO LUMBUNG BUYS 23.8% INTEREST IN BUMI
COALspot.com - PT. Borneo Lumbung Energi (BORN), an Indonesian coking coal producer announces that it has signed a sale and purchase agreement, cond ...
Tuesday, 01 November 11
BAKRIE FORMS STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH BORNEO - REDUCING DEBT BY USD 1 BILLION
Press Release - Enhancing the standing of “Indonesia Inc.” at the London Stock Exchange PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (“BNBR” ...
Tuesday, 01 November 11
ATLAS RESOURCES SETS IPO AT RP1,500 - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Atlas Resources Tbk has set its initial public offering (IPO) at Rp1,500 (approximately US$ 0.169) per ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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