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Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 17 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET INCHES FORWARD AND INTO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market edged higher yesterday, on the back of stronger demand for Capesize vessels and general improvement of sentiment on most of the ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 500K MT OF COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd.(KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 500,000 Metric Tons of minimum 5700 kcal/kg coal of NAR bases ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PLANS TO ISSUE MORATORIUM ON COAL MINING LICENSE
COALspot.com - Energy and mineral resources ministry is plans to issue a moratorium on the issuance of coal mining licenses, after the anti-graft co ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT BECOMES DEEPEST DRAFT PORT IN INDIA
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port in its quest to be the best port in India has increased its draft to 17.5 meters, according to E-Mail statement fr ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
CHINA'S INDONESIA COAL IMPORTS RISE IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 31,162,688 MT of coal in October 2011.
China was a largest importer of Indonesi ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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