We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 20 November 11
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market continued to move up with all sectors gaining except for handy size.
The BDI was up by 3.26 pct and closed at 1895 poin ...
Friday, 18 November 11
MMTC SEEKS 1.365 MMT OF IMPORTED COAL
COALspot.com - India's MMTC, the largest trading company of India and a major trading company of Asia, has issued a term supply tender for 1.365Mt ...
Friday, 18 November 11
KPC, ARUTMIN OUTPUT REACHED 47.1 MIO TONS - INSIDER STORIES
PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and PT Arutmin Indonesia, reported 47.1 million tons of coal production in 9M 2011, according to Indiser Stories.
Insi ...
Friday, 18 November 11
THE ATLANTIC SUPRAMAX MARKET EXPERIENCED A STEADY AND FIRM TENDENCY
Handy
The Atlantic Supramax market experienced a steady and firm tendency this week. Especially the North Atlantic and Mediterranean position ...
Friday, 18 November 11
BERAU COAL 9M PROFIT SOARS 194.46% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), which is 84.7% owned by Bumi Plc, reported a 194.46% jump in net profit by end of Se ...
|
|
|
Showing 4971 to 4975 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
