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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
MINERS WELCOME INDONESIA'S NEW JOBS BILL THAT COULD SPUR COAL GROWTH - REUTERS
Miners have welcomed proposed changes to Indonesian mining rules under a new law aimed at boosting investment, though critics are concerned that th ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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