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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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