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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bul ...
Monday, 03 January 11
TAXATION FOR COAL MINING COMPANIES IN INDONESIA - A TAX EXPERTS VIEW
COALspot.com - Mrs. Sri Wahyuni Sujono, managing partner of SF Consulting has wrote an exclusive report regarding taxation for coal mining companies ...
Sunday, 02 January 11
JAISWAL TO SEEK COAL MINES IN AFRICA - HINDUSTAN TIMES
Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal will talk with his counterparts in South Africa and Mozambique during his visit from January 5 to secure coal asset ...
Saturday, 01 January 11
COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED 340 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian coal miners expect to produce 340 million tons of coal in 2011, an increase of 23 percent from 275 millio ...
Friday, 31 December 10
STC TO FINALIZE 12 MILLION MT OF COAL IMPORT CONTRACT TO TWO INDIAN AND A DUBAI BASED COAL TRADER - SOURCES
COALspot.com - World's single largest coal import tender floated by STC on behalf of state utility NTPC to finalize its suppliers or already finali ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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