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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 05 January 11
HIGHER COAL PRICES LIFT UP COAL STOCKS
Thermal coal price this month has gone up 5.63% to US$127.70 per ton today from mid last month at US$120.89 per ton.
Thermal coal price for next ...
Wednesday, 05 January 11
BUKIT ASAM TARGETS 20% BUY TO GROW COAL TRANSPORT CAPACITY - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Indonesian coal producer Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam is considering buying an additional 20 percent stake in Bukit ...
Wednesday, 05 January 11
FLOODING IN AUSTRALIA WILL CAUSE COAL PRICES TO SPIKE AT LEAST 20 PERCENT
Rising coal prices are set to spike at least 20 per cent higher because of supply shortages due to severe flooding in Australia, adding cost pressur ...
Wednesday, 05 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET BEGINS NEW YEAR ON SOUR NOTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Seasonal factors like the worst flooding in Australia’s Queensland in half a century, coupled with thin trade activity has put the dry bulk ma ...
Tuesday, 04 January 11
THE WCI-CHINA ROUTE WAS TRADED IN THE MID US$ 10,000S - BRS DRY BULK
As reported by BRS Dry Bulk, after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at1,773 po ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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