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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 05 January 11
HIGHER COAL PRICES LIFT UP COAL STOCKS
Thermal coal price this month has gone up 5.63% to US$127.70 per ton today from mid last month at US$120.89 per ton.
Thermal coal price for next ...
Wednesday, 05 January 11
BUKIT ASAM TARGETS 20% BUY TO GROW COAL TRANSPORT CAPACITY - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Indonesian coal producer Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam is considering buying an additional 20 percent stake in Bukit ...
Wednesday, 05 January 11
FLOODING IN AUSTRALIA WILL CAUSE COAL PRICES TO SPIKE AT LEAST 20 PERCENT
Rising coal prices are set to spike at least 20 per cent higher because of supply shortages due to severe flooding in Australia, adding cost pressur ...
Wednesday, 05 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET BEGINS NEW YEAR ON SOUR NOTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Seasonal factors like the worst flooding in Australia’s Queensland in half a century, coupled with thin trade activity has put the dry bulk ma ...
Tuesday, 04 January 11
THE WCI-CHINA ROUTE WAS TRADED IN THE MID US$ 10,000S - BRS DRY BULK
As reported by BRS Dry Bulk, after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at1,773 po ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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