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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 07 January 11
SRI LANKA NEW PORT TO OFFER SHIP FUEL IN MAY - LBO
LOB reported that, The Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA) plans to start bunkering or ship fuel operations at a new port in southern Hambantota in May ...
Friday, 07 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET ON A FREEFALL, AS THE NEW YEAR EARLY DAYS DONT BRING MANY CHEERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is facing its worst slump in more than two years, falling by 4.75% yesterday to reach 1,544 points, on top of an additional 4.2% ...
Thursday, 06 January 11
OVERSEAS & GENERAL SIGNS AGREEMENT TO EXPAND FOOTPRINT ON COAL LEASE IN INDONESIA - PROACTIVE INVESTORS
Proactive Investors reported that, Overseas & General (ASX: OGL) has entered into a joint operating agreement on the Jambi Coal Lease in Sumatra ...
Thursday, 06 January 11
BANPU EXPECTS ROSY 2011 AS COAL PRICES SKYROCKET - BANGKOK POST
Bangkok Post reported that, Banpu Plc, Asean's largest coal miner, expects minimal impact from the production stoppage at its Daning mine in China ...
Thursday, 06 January 11
COKING COAL CONTRACT PRICE MAY RISE 33% ON AUSTRALIAN FLOODS - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, Steelmakers in Asia may be forced to pay as much as 33 percent more for hard coking coal after the worst floods in 50 years ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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