We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 08 April 10
NAPOCOR GETS ONE OFFER AT COAL TENDER - ABS CBN
ABS- CBN News reported that, Philippine power producer National Power Corp. (Napocor) is likely to buy 50,000 tons of steam coal from PT Berau Coal ...
Wednesday, 07 April 10
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION
The dry bulk market has kept a low profile during the past week, as evidenced by the small changes of a usually rather turbulent Baltic Dry Index (B ...
Tuesday, 06 April 10
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS RISE 24%, SHIP QUEUE SHORTENS - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, Coal shipments from Australia’s Newcastle port, the world’s biggest export harbor for the fuel used in power st ...
Tuesday, 06 April 10
UAE STEEL TRADERS FEAR LOSSES ON GLOBAL HIKE
A sudden spurt in the price of iron ore in the international market has caught local steel traders and manufacturers and a host of other steel-depen ...
Tuesday, 06 April 10
ASIAN INVESTORS EYE NIGERIA MARITIME INDUSTRY
Investors from the Asian region are considering investing in the Nigerian maritime sector, which has huge opportunities and potential. One of such p ...
|
|
|
Showing 5896 to 5900 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
|
| |
| |
|
