We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 10 April 10
VESSELS OPEN N. CHINA WERE SEEN FIXED AT HIGH TEENS FOR TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com: The BDI indices was almost at same levels was down by only 2.6 pct.
The cape index was down by almost 13 pct, which appears to be s ...
Saturday, 10 April 10
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT GROWS BY ALMOST 100% IN ITS SECOND YEAR OF OPERATIONS
COALspot.com ( Press Release): It has been a year of setting numerous records for Krishnapatnam Port. Krishnapatnam Port is only in its second year ...
Saturday, 10 April 10
TRANS-ASIA SEEKS SEMIRARA, INDO SUPPLIERS FOR COAL POWER PLANT - MANILA STANDARD TODAY
Manila Standard Today reported that, Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development Corp., a unit of the Phinma Group, will tap Semirara Mining Corp. ...
Thursday, 08 April 10
THE FAR EAST SHIPPING MARKET FIRMING SINCE THE LAST WEEK
Handy
Little fresh interest early this week after the holidays. The BSI saw yest ...
Thursday, 08 April 10
INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTRY SEEKS LONGER MINING CONTRACTS - THE JAKARTAGLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Energy Minister Darwin Zahedy Saleh said he would seek to amend the mining law to address investors’ complain ...
|
|
|
Showing 5891 to 5895 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
|
| |
| |
|
