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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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