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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed pr ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
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Showing 361 to 365 news of total 6871 |
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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