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Thursday, 16 May 13
PANAMAX: THE FORWARD CURVE IS FALLING GRADUALLY - FEARNRESEARCH


Handy
The Atlantic market remained quiet. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 11k. The Pacific market remained uncertain as charterers holding rates and owners asking higher rates. However heard Supra open South China was fixed at low 8s for Indo-ECI rv. WCI-China is also easing off and rates getting weaker around USD 8-9k whereas ECI/China was quiet and rates were 6k, respectively. RBCT round was around USD 9k + 300 BB. Short period activity was limited and rate for large eco Supra was around USD 9k.

Panamax
Largely flat week particularly in the North Atlantic with limited with fresh cargoes. A few quick T/A runs brought some energy into the market and levels from about 8.5- 9k per day. East Coast South America remains steady with marginally lower rates but higher ballast bonuses due to congested Brazilian ports, typically 15,500 + 550k GBB. Fronthaul via Baltic reported at steady mid teens. In the Eastern hemisphere volumes are low and new business scarce. With a long list of open tonnage many owners still look for ECSA runs. SE Asian rounds between 6-7k and tick more for Nopac buiz. Marginal volumes on period, although 11-13 months done at 9k with optional 2-3rd year at high 9 and 10 flat. The forward curve is falling gradually, as could be the trend for the coming weeks.

Capesize
The positive run witnessed on the 4TC average appears to have slowed, with the index losing USD 650 w-o-w. Following last week´s firmer West Australia fixtures, tonnage in the high Pacific looks to be in surplus again and rates have come off. At the time of writing, USD 7.25 PMT has been concluded on this route by the major Australian shippers. The Atlantic and fronthaul routes remain quiet, therefore restraining any momentum generated in the Pacific. Looking forward to June and July, it remains to be seen whether the 4TC average will hold steady or deflate back to USD 4.5k levels of previous months. Consistent volumes across all fronts will be required for the latter to be prevented. Perhaps the most positive news of the week is a reported period deal for 3 years at a very strong USD15k per day. This also follows a recent trend of 2nd hand Cape plays from old players, which we hope indicates heightened confidence for the years to come.
Source: Fearnresearch



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